The Art Institution of Tomorrow; Revinventing the Model is the most recent of Lund Humphrey’s ‘Hot Topics in the Art World’ series, and is a rallying cry to art institutions of all shapes and sizes across the globe to break free from their current ‘stagnation’. Üstek proposes an artist centric model, with equal attention given to the people who work in institutions: this model will reinvigorate the entire sector, producing learning organisations that are sites of cultural and art production, without resorting to crassly populistic programming.
Üstek’s proposes a two pronged strategy. The first is to truly centre artists in all institutions do, from commissioning all the way through to structuring budgets that properly understand and nourish the artistic process. She also proposes a widening of artists being approached, not only for the sake of the art, but to naturally diversify the networks involved in the institutions themselves. Centring a more diverse roster of artists necessarily requires embedding better digital know how and technology use within institutions to reflect the movement of making in the virtual space – in turn this will attract engagement from across the globe, further widening participation in the work of the institution.
The second prong is radical decentralisation and structural overhaul of institutional operations. Institutions can centre artists and intellectually rigorous and exciting programming by removing existing institutional hierarchies, and instead focusing on the skills of cross disciplinary teams. This decentralised approach gives staff members a sense of commitment and engagement, simultaneously providing a workplace where they feel safe and valued – and so able to produce creatively superior work.
Courtesy of Lund Humphries 2024
Üstek’s new model is a compelling ideal, rather than necessarily practical at this stage (which she acknowledges for certain institutions). Insufficient attention is given to why institutions do not, or cannot currently adhere to such a model, and instead must adhere to external social and financial demands. Üstek offers her own experience curating fig-2 at the ICA as proof her model works: her accomplishments there are undeniable, but tellingly there was no requirement to produce those same results the next year, or the year after, which is the demand placed on permanent institutional staff. Most of Üstek’s suggestions are not in place already due to (often external) conditional financial and operational constraints, rather than lack of willingness to centre artists, or a desire to treat budgets as minimal suggested starting points.
Üstek’s uncompromising insistence that radical change requires proper thought and due care to the people who actually work in institutions is admirable. Operational and structural centrality is the most progressive and welcome aspect of Üstek’s new model; she posits that by focusing on artists and art professionals, and supporting their work, new life can be breathed into institutions, so they can avoid simply pandering to populist trends. While there are questions to be asked about how the decentralised, committed teams can be brought into being, as a goal and method of reinvention Üstek’s model is an indisputable ideal to aim for.
The Art Institution of Tomorrow: Reinventing the Model by Fatoş Üstek is available for sale starting Friday, April 26th as part of their Hot Topics in the Art World Series on the Lund Humphries’ website.
Stay tuned for our upcoming episode announcement of the ArtTactic Podcast where Adam Green will be joined by Fatoş Üstek, author of the new book The Art Institution of Tomorrow: Reinventing the Model.
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Spanning over 14 centuries, 3 continents and a multitude of mediums, pre-modern Islamic art as an overarching term for “art made by and for people who lived or live in lands where the majority were Muslims” (Bloom & Blair, 1997) constitutes one of the most geographically, temporally and material diverse markets in today’s art world. Despite headline-maker lots such as the US$14.9 million (hammer price) Tipu Sultan’s sword, the US$8 million Shahnama folio, and the US$7.8 million brass candlestick, the market has in fact witnessed a volatile year-on-year movement, both in terms of sales value and volume. As the Islamic art week approaches, this article will look back at the market trajectory of the past 10 years, and ahead at the trends of collecting and investing in this broadly defined category, amidst the ongoing geopolitical tensions and budding cultural happenings in the Gulf regions.
Tipu Sultan’s Sword, Bonhams, 2023
In 2023, Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Bonhams pre-modern Islamic art offerings in London fetched a total of US$57 million (hammer price), among which Bonhams stood out with a skyrocketing 936.8% gain from the year before. The dominating force is evidently the 18th century Bedchamber Sword of Tipu Sultan, almost doubling the previous record of the most expensive Islamic object sold a year ago and making 7 times its US$1.86 million low estimate. Sotheby’s and Christie’s, on the other hand, nudged a 0.1%* increase and a 54.8%* drop respectively. Beside last year’s pressure from global economic crunch and wars, there seems to be a persistent push-and-pull market dynamics between Christie’s and Sotheby’s – when one heads upward, the other downward (except for the year of Covid). In 2022 and 2021, Christie’s scored consecutive growth of 58.7% and 24.9% after a year of contraction. Alternatively, an inverted pattern speaks for Sotheby’s, where a 24.7% fall in 2022 was followed by a year of headway and 2 years of decline. Such an inconclusive performance signals a mercurial buyer inclination towards the sellers, especially those who collect higher-value work. As for sales volumes, both auction houses experienced decline in total lots sold in 2023, with Christie’s shrinking to only a fifth of its peak in 2016 and that of Sotheby’s to 60%. Sell-through rate remains at the 55% level for Sotheby’s and a 4-year low for Christie’s, at 67.7%.
The Khamsa of Nizami and Amir Khusraw Dihlav, Christie’s, 2024
Between the blockbuster outperformers and regular curations, Persian carpets, Mughal and Safavid book arts and Iznik pottery continue to attract most bids, bringing in lofty above-estimate trade figures to the auction market. Following this trend, lots of particular interest in the upcoming sales include: a folio from the Late Shah Jahan Album in the Mughal period at Sotheby’s, the large Safavid figural velvet panel, and the Khamsa of Nizami and Amir Khusraw Dihlav at Christie’s, reaching a combined estimate range of US$1.3 million to US$1.8 million. Outside of London, Tajan’s Oriental and Islamic Sale in Paris and Oriental Art Auctions’ Fine Islamic Art Sale in the Netherlands both achieved optimistic estimate-beating results, raising half a million to over a million annually. In addition to the continental counterparts, regional presence such as Christie’s Dubai and Qatar’s AlBahie Auction House are materialising exciting opportunities, along with mega museums and buzzing educational programmes. If London wishes to continue its success in this evolving landscape, perhaps it’s time to lean less towards the legacy, but more towards finding relevance in a diverse market that will be driven by fresh perspectives and value-based motivations among the next generation of collectors and art enthusiasts.
*Net of Orientalist paintings, Indian paintings and private collections with mixed categories.
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As the initial quarter of 2024 has drawn to a close, the global auction market is navigating through a period of fluctuation, grappling with the persistent effects of economic and geo-political uncertainty. ArtTactic’s RawFacts Auction Review for the First Quarter of 2024 offers an insightful overview of the market’s current trajectory.
Auction Breakdown by Sales Value, 2015-23 from RawFacts Auction Review 1st Quarter 2024 (Copyright ArtTactic 2024)
Here are five notable market trends:
Trend #1: Persistent Market Uncertainty
The global auction scene experienced a significant downturn in the first quarter of 2024, with total sales from Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips declining by 18% compared to Q1 2023. This marks the second lowest Q1 result since 2016, surpassing only the figures from Q1 2020.
Trend #2: Bright Spots Amidst the Decline
Despite the overall decrease in auction sales, Christie’s defied the trend by achieving an impressive 11.2% year-on-year increase in sales during Q1 2024. It stood out as the sole house among the three to witness a rise in sales during this period.
Trend #3: Sustained Activity in Online Sales
Sales from online-only auctions experienced a marginal dip of only 3.5% compared to Q1 2023, contrasting starkly with the substantial 20.1% decline observed in live auction sales. Online-only auctions claimed a larger share of the market, constituting 59.8% of total volume and 13.2% of total sales value for the three auction houses in Q1 2024.
Trend #4: Mixed Performance in Luxury Collectibles
While certain luxury collectible segments continued to exhibit robust demand, others faced setbacks. Auction sales of Clothing & Accessories surged by 136.0% year-on-year, now representing 2.5% of sales value for the three houses (up from a mere 0.1% share in Q1 2023). However, auction sales of Jewels & Watches and Wine experienced declines of 15.5% and 28.9% respectively.
Trend #5: Paris Emerges as an Important Hub for Single Owner Sales
The first quarter of this year witnessed a significant uptick in sales activity in Paris, primarily fuelled by the Barbier-Mueller collection of Oceanic and African works of art at Christie’s, which contributed $73.1 million to the total of $117.1 million generated through Parisian sales.
Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2024, the global auction market anticipates pivotal marquee auctions in both Hong Kong and New York, poised to provide insights into the evolving dynamics of the art world amidst ongoing uncertainties.
Learn more about the global auction results from the first quarter of 2024 by downloading our in-depth analysis HERE.
Expert Insights Amid This Year’s Economic Uncertainties
Following the release of the Modern & Contemporary African Artist Market Report 2016-2023, ArtTactic engaged with key stakeholders in the African art ecosystem to gain deeper insights into this dynamic segment of the global art market. Our report revealed that the African segment only experienced a modest decline of 8.4% in 2023, contrasting with the broader modern & contemporary market, which saw nearly an 18% decrease during the same period. Since ArtTactic began its analysis of this sector in 2016, the African art market has undergone dynamic transformations driven by collectors evolving tastes, heightened global awareness, and the emergence of new opportunities. Other key market drivers included increased institutional attention towards African-born artists in recent years and the emergence of renowned artists, such as Marlene Dumas, Julie Mehretu, and El Anatsui, as top sellers both in this sector and the art market on the whole. Through a series of interviews with five key market experts, ArtTactic cultivated a nuanced understanding of the prevailing sentiments among different stakeholders in the Modern & Contemporary African art market, adding further context to our recently released report.
We began with insights from Alastair Meredith, Head of Department & Auctioneer at Strauss and Co., who reflected on the dynamic nature of the market today, noting, “while demand for quality Contemporary African art remains robust, there is a noticeable and growing interest in the moderns.” Danda Jaroljmek, Director at the Circle Art Agency Kenya, then highlighted the market’s global visibility, observing that, “we’re witnessing the emergence of more online platforms that extend visibility into markets previously untapped.” Next, Jo Stella-Sawicka, Senior Director at Goodman Gallery, celebrated the international recognition of African artists in her response, stating that, “there’s been a notable focus from international institutions on artists from or connected to the continent.” Furthermore, Hannah O’Leary, Senior Director in Modern & Contemporary African Art at Sotheby’s, shed light on the impact of socio-political movements, asserting that, “since mid-2020, we’ve witnessed a surge of interest in African and Diaspora art following George Floyd’s tragic death and the resurgence of the Black Lives Matter movement.” Lastly, Kéwé Lô, Director at Black Rock Sénégal, offered a unique perspective rooted in community engagement, sharing that, “Black Rock serves as a sanctuary for artists, providing them with a platform to be heard, supported, and respected in their creative endeavours.”
Together, all five African art market specialists provided a diverse range of perspectives on the recent developments, challenges, and opportunities shaping the African art market in 2024.
NAVIGATING MARKET SHIFTS AND TRENDS
“Tracing an artist’s lineage – whether stylistic or conceptual – has become a rewarding priority for many collectors.”
-ALASTAIR MEREDITH, STRAUSS & CO.
During our interview, Meredith illuminated a significant shift towards a deeper appreciation of historical context within contemporary art collections. He noted, “Collectors are increasingly contextualizing their contemporary holdings by integrating relevant artists from earlier generations.” Jaroljmek echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the rising interest in African artists due to the expanding opportunities for exposure through various digital platforms. Similarly, O’Leary called attention to the surge of interest in African and Diaspora art following more recent significant global events, which has resulted in a sustained growth trajectory.
On another note, Stella-Sawicka underscored the regional nuances and specificities within the African art landscape. She cited Cape Town’s emergence as an international art hub and the heightened focus on African artists by international institutions. Lô also emphasized the importance of nurturing local artistic communities and providing platforms for experimentation and dialogue. Ultimately, all five experts agreed that the trajectory of the African art market is undergoing a profound transformation and playing close attention to navigating these market shifts and trends will prove vital in serving both the artists and their growing global audience.
CONFRONTING CHALLENGES
Amidst a period of remarkable growth, the African art market grapples with a myriad of challenges, from logistical hurdles to infrastructure deficiencies. Meredith underscored the imperative of building robust networks across diverse regional markets, acknowledging the complexities involved. Jaroljmek further highlighted the absence of government support and corporate patronage within the Kenyan art ecosystem, underscoring the need for systemic changes to foster growth. Lô’s insights illuminated the intersection of environmental and social concerns, emphasizing the art residency’s commitment to community engagement and sustainability. O’Leary then stressed the importance of investing in education and infrastructure for sustained growth, recognizing the foundational work needed in emerging markets. Stella-Sawicka amplified this sentiment, drawing attention to the disproportionate impact of climate change on vulnerable communities in the Global South and advocating for sustainable practices within the art industry.
“A big challenge that is not often discussed in the context of the art market is the disproportionate impact of climate change on the Global South. Important initiatives to address the art world’s response to the climate crisis that have come from the global north, such as Climate Coalition, speak to a context that does not translate meaningfully to the infrastructure, shipping, transport and material realities faced on the continent.”
– JO STELLA-SAWICKA, Goodman gallery
Yet, despite these challenges, there’s an undeniable sense of optimism and determination among experts to navigate and overcome the obstacles facing the African art ecosystem. Through collaboration, innovation, and a commitment to sustainable development, the African art market stands poised to realize its full potential on the global stage.
EMBRACING NEW OPPORTUNITIES
In the dynamic landscape of the African art market, challenges intertwine with an array of opportunities waiting to be seized. Lô’s visionary perspective accentuates the transformative impact of community engagement and creative exploration, envisioning a future marked by vibrant growth and enriching cultural exchange. O’Leary champions the untapped potential inherent in the African market, advocating for greater representation of African artists within esteemed museums and collections.
“We see such huge potential for growth in this market. By 2050, one in every four people on the planet will be African – yet African artists represents just 0.9%* of contemporary art sales value today. Our focus has always been on collectors on the continent itself, who account for approximately two-thirds of our buyers in Sotheby’s African auctions.”
– hannah o’leary, sOTHEBY’S
Stella-Sawicka then underscores the significance of nurturing connections across the Global South to foster dialogue and solidarity among diverse artistic communities. Meanwhile, Meredith identifies education as a pivotal catalyst for market expansion, emphasizing, “Education is perhaps the key driver of a burgeoning market.” Jaroljmek looks towards collaboration and the expansion of exhibition spaces as pathways to growth, asserting, “We need to persuade the big art fairs to accept African galleries.”
LOOKING AHEAD IN 2024
Despite the prevailing economic climate, the outlook for the African art market remains positive. Meredith projects a trajectory of steady growth, underpinned by the dynamic contemporary scene, affirming, “The outlook is undeniably promising.” Jaroljmek echoes this sentiment, noting a shift towards more strategic collecting practices amidst prevailing global uncertainties.
“The market for art worldwide is more cautious, and the African art market is no different. Collectors are closing more carefully, so I would expect that we will see less risk taking with collectors acquiring more established artists.”
– danda jaroljmek, circle agency kenya
Looking ahead, O’Leary anticipates a significant uptick in institutional recognition for African modernism in 2024 through prominent museum exhibitions, signaling a widening acknowledgment of historical artists. Stella-Sawicka also underscores the criticality of fostering cross-cultural partnerships and community engagement as essential drivers of resilience and market expansion.
As collectors and industry players eagerly await the upcoming Modern & Contemporary African Art auctions this week, the African art market braces for its inaugural challenge of 2024. The London sales kick off at Sotheby’s on 21 March, followed by Bonhams on 27 March. In Cape Town, Strauss & Co hosted their Evening Sale on 19 March, having previously brought their first selling exhibition for South African artist Alexis Preller to London from 5-10 March. Further details are available here.
The African art market stands as a true testament to the intersection of commerce and culture, positioned to play a pivotal role in reshaping the importance of artists from the Global South in the evolving art landscape. With strategic planning, collaborative initiatives, and dedicated talent development, the market offers both cultural enrichment and economic advancement for future generations.
As London eagerly anticipates the Spring Edition of Affordable Art Fair, set to unveil its vast array of artworks from 113 leading galleries at Battersea Evolution tonight, Affordable Art Fair London Battersea Spring promises an immersive experience for seasoned and first-time art collectors alike. In celebration of their 25th year, the fair will also host special exhibitions honouring International Women’s Day and the Pantone Colour of the Year: Peach Fuzz amongst other commemorative offerings. Running until Sunday, 10th March, the fair’s ethos is deeply rooted in democratising the art world. By aligning visitor ticket pricing with other renowned London art institutions, capping artwork prices, and mandating transparent pricing labels, Affordable Art Fair aims to increase accessibility and transparency in the primary art market.
In an exclusive interview with Hugo Barclay, UK Fair Director of Affordable Art Fair, we explore the essence of what makes Affordable Art Fair stand out amidst tense competition in the evolving landscape of global art fairs.
Fostering a Culture of Accessibility and Inclusivity
“Affordable Art Fair has played a critical role over the last 25 years in making art more accessible to an audience who might not have otherwise become art enthusiasts and collectors,” shares Barclay. Both the fair’s price range between £50 and £7,500 and commitment to showcasing living artists underscore it dedication to inclusivity. It’s an art fair for everyone, designed to spark curiosity regardless of background, budget, or level of expertise in the art world. Offering a range of tours, workshops, and feature areas under various price brackets ensures that art collecting can be accessible to every visitor. Notably, millennials are drawn to the fair’s accessible pricing as they come of age and begin to direct more of their discretionary income toward art collecting. That said, the fair’s overall buyer demographic has not changed much in the past decade.
Empowering Emerging Talent
A hallmark of Affordable Art Fair is its unwavering support for emerging artists. Through initiatives such as the annual art graduate exhibition (in the Autumn edition) and charitable giving programs, the fair provides a platform for budding talents to thrive.” Globally, we have donated over £2.3m worth of stand space and advice to emerging artists and have raised over £1.5m for local charities,” Barclay highlights. The fair’s commitment to supporting diversity extends to gallery participation as well, with approximately 30% of exhibitors hailing from overseas. The fair ultimately offers a variety of perspectives while also taking into account improving upon sustainable and eco-friendly practices involved in operating international art fairs.
Striking a Balance Between Access and Authenticity
Maintaining a delicate equilibrium between accessibility and the integrity of artworks is a challenge Affordable Art Fair gracefully embraces. “We work closely with our participating galleries to ensure they showcase original work across a variety of budgets and mediums,” explains Barclay. However, rising operating costs pose challenges for all stakeholders, especially the fair’s cherished galleries. By navigating this delicate balance between pricing, transparency, and economic sustainability, Affordable Art Fair upholds its reputation for inclusivity and innovation.
Embracing the Physical Experience
In an era dominated by online galleries and digital platforms, Affordable Art Fair champions the allure of physical art experiences. “You cannot underestimate the value of physical in-person moments,” asserts Barclay, “the whole ecosystem will always have a preference for the tangible.” By curating an immersive atmosphere and offering on-site framing services, the fair engages visitors in the entire art acquisition process, fostering meaningful connections with gallerist, artists, and the art itself.
Looking ahead, Barclay envisions Affordable Art Fair evolving into a dynamic destination centred not just around art, but around enriching experiences. “We are always looking to support our ever-expectant visitors,” he notes, emphasising the importance of creating a welcoming space where art enthusiasts of all backgrounds can come together to celebrate artistic creativity. With seventeen Affordable Art Fairs annually in a range of global locations, the fair aims to bring its mission of democratising access to art collection to all corners of the globe.
As the Spring Edition of London’s Affordable Art Fair approaches, it presents an opportunity for art enthusiasts to immerse themselves in an inclusive artistic atmosphere at Battersea Evolution. With a steadfast dedication to accessibility, innovation, and community engagement, the fair stands as a market leader amidst the evolving landscape of socially conscious collecting habits and the dynamic evolution of the art industry.
Following their Battersea Spring edition (6-10 March), the first UK fair in their 25th Anniversary year, Affordable Art Fair has now reached the milestone of £500,000,000 in global artsales generated for independent galleries and artists.
Hugo Barclay, UK Fair Director at Affordable Art Fair, said: “This milestone shows our impact, having helped people start and build collections over the years. It’s very fulfilling to see the joy on people faces as they fall in love with artwork at the fair.”
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As expected from Lund Humphries’ Hot Topics in the Art World series, Leslie Ramos’ Philanthropy in the Arts: A Game of Give and Take is an insightful, analytical overview of arts philanthropy, looking at both giving and taking at the arts organisation level. In spite of the scarcity of data in this area, Ramos constructs clear frameworks for how philanthropy works within arts organisations at the level of ‘true’ philanthropy – what Ramos defines as extending beyond being mere patronage, or the status of being a “friend,” to an arts organisation, which is typically associated with receiving perks like free exhibition entry. Instead, she focuses on a true philanthropist’s engagement with organisations and institutions, particularly emphasising small, local organisations rather than individual artists. Ramos clearly lays out good and bad giving and taking, explaining why getting this balance right is crucial to the future of funding within these organisations.
Data, particularly the challenges associated with it, both in philanthropy, and more significantly, in assessing the impact of art on society, stands out as one of the most urgent takeaways from Philanthropy in the Arts. This issue can be broken down into three key parts. The first is that the data itself is often scarce, incomplete, and inconsistent across organisations, let alone globally. Analysing the role philanthropy plays, the culture of giving in any particular context, and the funding mechanism itself is complex – conclusive results are rare, if not impossible to achieve. While Ramos goes well beyond speculation, she is right to supplement her research with extensive interviews from key philanthropists and arts organisations working in the space. The second and third data ideas are interrelated. Ramos describes a new wave of philanthropy, driven by tech innovation, trying to rationalise philanthropy. Art, and its benefit on society, is not simply measurable by some data metric. Ramos reminds us that one role of art is to make us uncomfortable, to challenge us, not merely to entertain. The benefits of a flourishing arts eco-system is impossible to capture in the same concrete, numeric way as education, or health, or poverty. As long as purely tech and data-driven philanthropists seek to rationalise their giving, they will not look to art. This is not to undermine the importance of these other causes, but rather to raise the point that art organisations are necessary to a flourishing society, yet their impact and cultural importance cannot be neatly captured in a spreadsheet – but they must not be forgotten.
An offshoot of this data problem leads to perhaps the one omission from Philanthropy in the Arts. Ramos sets a stringent moral standard on what makes philanthropy something distinct from art-washing, or simply a social status based transactional behaviour – it has to be about the love of the art, and support for the mission of the organisation. Arguably, according to these terms, those people who actually staff art organisations and their contributions need to be included in any comprehensive overview. Arts organisations, and jobs across the arts industry more generally, are notoriously poorly paid relative to their counterparts outside the industry, for the very reasons Ramos outlines. It is those same dedicated individuals across the arts industry who are truly making large financial sacrifice because of their belief in the cause and mission of arts organisations that allow any arts organisations to exist in the first place. If we could somehow calculate what they are ‘giving’ in terms of low pay, understaffing, volunteer hours, purely because of their love of art, then it would surely be clear that industry workers themselves are true philanthropists.
On the whole, Ramos provides clear strategies to better use and maximise philanthropy in arts organisations, and they are an excellent call to arms for Development teams and Culture departments across the globe. In the meantime, for the average reader – continue to buy your post exhibition coffee in the organisations own café, spend your money in the gift shop, and really use your local organisations, so they can continue their ineffable but critical contribution to making ours a richer world to thrive in, rather than simply exist.
Stay up to date with the latest philanthropic insights as the art market continues to evolve in 2024 by joining our newsletter and learn more about philanthropy in the art market by downloading some our existing reports:
Philanthropy in the Arts: A Game of Give and Take by Lesile Ramos is currently available for sale as part of their Hot Topics in the Art World Series on the Lund Humphries’ website.
Check out the February 2024 episode of the ArtTactic Podcast when Adam Green was joined by Leslie Ramos, author of the new book Philanthropy in the Arts: A Game of Give and Take.
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Reach out to our Head of Editorial Brooke Reese (brooke@arttactic.com) for more information.
Installation view of “Outsider Art: The Collection of Victor F. Keen” at Intuit: The Center for Intuitive and Outsider Art in Chicago, Illinois, 2020. Photo by Cheri Eisenberg.
Self-Taught Artists Rise in Price and Popularity in 2023
Self-taught artists, commonly referred to as “Outsider Artists”, which is among the more considerate labels given to artists whose work do not adhere to traditional institutional frameworks, have seen a historic price surge within the art market in 2023. This increase in popularity, visibility, and prices of artworks by artists who do not have formal arts academic training or gallery representation is notable.
In January 2023, Christie’s Outsider and Vernacular Art auction brought in a sale total of $1.6 million (hammer price) within the pre-sale estimates of $1,244,800 to $2,039,700 USD, giving a performance of 31.6% above the pre-sale low estimate.
In Christie’s 2023 auction, Minnie Evans’s Voice of the Third Angel (1963), a work estimated at $7,000 to $10,000 USD, was eventually purchased for $34,000 – 385.7% above the low estimate. Similar works by Evans such as Asian garden (1947) sold in 2013 for $1,500 at Slotin Folk Art, a platform dedicated specifically to self-taught artwork auctions, reflecting a significantly more niche interest in self-taught artwork just a decade prior.
This trend continued for popular self-taught artists such as Thornton Dial, routinely pulling in prices exceeding expectations by large margins, such as Dials’s Untitled, a mixed media on canvas piece made in 1991 selling from Jane Fonda’s collection for $85,000. Dial’s work saw sales in the January 2020 “Outsider” auction at Christie’s as well, with The Beginning of the World (1988-1989) selling for triple the pre-sale low estimate price, achieving a final hammer price of $60,000.
A shift in cultural attitudes and increase in exhibitions featuring self-taught artists are evident in these auction numbers. In 2022, the Smithsonian American Art Museum opened “We Are Made of Stories: Self-Taught Artists in the Robson Family Collection”, and in 2023 “Creating Connections: Self-Taught Artists in the Rosenthal Collection” was exhibited at the Cincinnati Art Museum. The institutional and market acceptance of self-taught artists coincides with a significant shift in the dialogue surrounding these artists. Lisa Slominski has been one of the pioneers in suggesting an alternative anthology for artists tied to a legacy that confines them within a rigid framework, limiting their creative movement. In Nonconformers, a 2022 book by Slominski, she seeks to replace “outsider”, “primitive”, “folk”, and “naïve” with “self-taught”, a term she sees as better acknowledging the unique set of circumstances each artist faced in creating their work without the backing of a traditional art institution, while still giving them agency and artistic merit in their own rite.
Alongside an increasing focus on artist diversity within auctions, the meaningful difference between the pre-sale auction estimate and final purchase price of works by self-taught artists in 2023 generates reasonable cause to believe that 2024 auctions focusing on self-taught art will continue to command an increase in sale prices, though not without the economic impact of the geopolitical tensions on the art market as a whole. This prediction for self-taught art in 2024 will be tested at the Outsider Art Fair in New York (29th February to 3rd March) and Christie’s Outsider Art auction (1st March 2024).
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Insights from Key Art Market Experts & Our 2024 Global Art Market Outlook Survey
As part of our investigation for the 2024 Global Art Market Outlook Report, launched earlier this month, we reached out to three highly regarded authorities in the art market; Melanie Gerlis, the Art Market Editor-at-large for The Art Newspaper and weekly art market columnist for the Financial Times, Robert Read, Head of Art and Private Clients at Hiscox, and Linda Selvin, Executive Director of the Appraisers Association of America – to hear their takeaways from 2023 and insights on what to expect for 2024.
2023 Takeaways
ArtTactic’s 2024 outlook survey calls attention to the fact that major global auction houses, including Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips, had a significant combined year-on-year decline in sales (17.5%) in 2023, the downturn likely attributed to the impact of external economic and geopolitical pressures that have been mounting throughout 2022 and 2023.
“Buyers and sellers are gradually letting go of the notion that art always goes up in price. There’s been a lot of talk of buyers being more “discerning” in recent years, but in 2023, this seemed too much of a euphemism. Buyers are sitting on their hands and so sellers are waiting.”Melanie Gerlis
All our surveyed experts highlighted a shift in both buyer and seller behaviours as their main takeaway from last year. Linda Selvin further noted the clear impact of interest rates, geopolitical unrest, and the post-pandemic recovery on market corrections, while Robert Read expressed surprise (especially in the first half of 2023) at the market’s resilience amidst these global challenges.
Despite the macroeconomic forces at play, ArtTactic found that the auction market remained active throughout 2023, with the total number of auctions held up 3.0% and the total number of lots sold up 5.6% from 2022. As experts indicate, the buyer and seller attention seems to have shifted away from the top-end of the market in favour of lower-ticket, high-volume collecting segments, such as prints, limited editions, jewellery, and watches.
2024 Outlook
Our 2024 survey further mentioned that 68% of experts expect a soft landing for the art market this year (up from 47% in 2023), foreseeing sales to hover around last year’s levels. Meanwhile, 12% believe the downward trend may continue (down from 16% in 2022), and 20% think the market could rebound from last year’s decline (down from 37% in 2023).Experts are also divided about their outlook for the low-end market, with 38% agreeing with positive market development in 2024 and 41% saying they anticipate interest in the lower-ticket items to decline.
“I think there is a collective nervousness about 2024 – market sentiment dipped in the second half of 2023 and it feels as though that sentiment will harden in 2024. On the bright side, interest rates are expected to fall in 2024 and that may well stimulate both economies and the art market.” Robert Read
Gerlis agrees with Read, foreseeing a cautious environment with patient sellers and buyers that could potentially be affected by distractions, such as the upcoming US elections. Selvin anticipates that strong sales by those less affected by global events and suggests a stable market may attract new collectors while further theorizing that recognition and acquisition of artist’s works that may not have previously had institutional or market success will continue throughout 2024.
2024 Challenges
Experts identify two key factors that could impact their outlook, according to the survey. The majority (79%) highlight geo-political uncertainty—specifically, concerns about wars and the escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—as the primary challenge facing the art market this year. Additionally, 77% of experts cite concerns about high interest rates, the risk of persistent inflation, and sluggish economic growth, noting that these factors could potentially undermine the art market’s recovery efforts.
“Collectors and art professionals will be more in line with their own expectations regarding prices, whether it be buying or selling. Having a greater diversity of works [on offer] in the primary and secondary markets will be of paramount importance.” Linda Selvin
In light of the ambiguity mentioned above, Gerlis emphasizes the possible allure of concentrating on short-term taste categories, such as fashion and/or celebrity-based items, and advocates for the market’s conscientious effort to address educational gaps in the realms of art and art history. Read further points to additional economic challenges amid a global recession and the geopolitical risk of China’s potential invasion of Taiwan as obstacles reverberating across all markets, the art market being no exception.
2024 Opportunities
Focusing heavily on lower-end market growth driven by the entrance of new buyers, our 2024 survey revealed a 65% increase in new Gen Z buyers, mainly active in collectible market segments such as handbags, watches, and prints. This mass-market entry proves to be an important force behind the upward trend, yet some experts still express concerns that the top-end market softening will trickle down to the lower segments. Gerlis aligns with 38% of experts surveyed who believe there to be positive market development in the coming year, expecting a shift toward a multi-channel market with higher volumes at lower prices.
“We are moving into a very multi-channel market of higher volumes at lower prices. So within the realms of fine art, prints and editions, including photography and sculpture, seem great areas to focus on in order to grow a new generation of collecting.” Melanie Gerlis
In addition to the spotlight on the ascending lower end of the market, which experienced a 10% surge in 2023, our 2024 survey investigates four other major trends shaping the art landscape: auction guarantees, the Chinese economy, NextGen artists, and Women artists. Anticipated softening in the auction guarantee market this year does not diminish its significance in attracting premium inventory and single-owner collections. While some guarantors may exit due to diminishing returns, auction houses could explore a shift from heavily backed sales, if the appetite exists. On another note, Read highlights the potential dominance of art fairs for dealers and the continued prosperity of private sales for auction houses as we embark on 2024.
As Chinese buying continues to decline, bidding activity may shift away from Chinese and other Asian art buyers in 2024, potentially opening up opportunities for new or previously unsuccessful bidders. However, this shift could also contribute to weakened global demand for art, particularly in the $1m+ segment where Chinese and other Asian buyers accounted for 30% of bidding activity in H1 2023.
On a positive note, the NextGen artist and female artist markets present promising opportunities in 2024. Adjusting price expectations for younger artists in response to lower demand could lead to a market correction, appealing to a growing demographic of younger art collectors. Selvin further emphasizes aligning collector expectations with market realities and promoting diversity in primary and secondary markets as a key opportunity in 2024. Meanwhile, women artists continue to make strides in narrowing the gender gap in the auction market, emerging as a robust opportunity area. The prevalence of high-profile women artist museum shows in 2023 further underscores the strength of this segment.
Reflecting on the valuable perspectives shared by the seasoned experts above in addition to our 2024 Global Outlook survey findings, it becomes evident that experts foresee a cautious market environment shaped by external distractions. However, the opportunities that lie ahead are diverse and the coming year promises to be a nuanced and ever-evolving chapter shaped largely by the interplay of global events, macro-economic forces, and the resilience of the global art community.
Following what most may characterize as a tumultuous 2023, the Global Art Market faced the dual challenge of both economic headwinds and geopolitical tensions last year. Global auction sales for Old Masters, Impressionist, Modern, Post-War, and Contemporary Art at prestigious houses such as Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips dipped significantly, marking a 27.2% decrease from 2022 and a 12.4% drop compared to 2021. Despite these lower sale results, a record-breaking number of lots, nearly 17,000 artworks, changed hands – showcasing the resilience and adaptability of the art market moving into 2024.
The year 2023 witnessed a stark contrast in performance between different segments of the market. While the high-end sector, featuring lots valued at $10 million and above, experienced a notable 30% decline, the lower end flourished. Artworks priced below $50,000 saw a remarkable 7.4% increase in sales value, accompanied by an 18.0% increase in the number of lots sold. This shift indicates a growing interest in more accessible and affordable pieces and perhaps illuminates the effects of younger collectors joining the collecting base. Looking to 2024, we predict this area of the market will continue to grow in size and sales value.
The geographical landscape of art sales also witnessed significant shifts. New York, historically a dominant force, faced a 33.3% decline in auction sales, dropping from $5.38 billion in 2022 to $3.58 billion in 2023. In contrast, Paris and Milan experienced growth, with Milan being the sole location boasting positive sales growth at 1.1%. Despite these variations, New York retained its position as the primary sales hub for the global art market, albeit with a reduced market share, followed by London, Hong Kong, Paris, and Milan. As we move into 2024, New York is set to retain its status as the dominant market; however, close attention must be paid toward developing markets, such as Paris and Milan, now experiencing a resurgence of growth following the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.
Influenced by these geographical shifts amongst other factors, specific genres within the Global Art Market also faced significant challenges in 2023. The Contemporary market faced a 12.8% decline in auction sales, with notable decreases in the Young Contemporary segment. Artists that achieved record-breaking results in 2022, including Shara Hughes, Flora Yukhnovich, and María Berrío, experienced substantial declines in the sales ranging from 80.5% to 91.8% respectively. Nonetheless, the new generation of Young Contemporary artists, such as Nicolas Party, Matthew Wong, and Jadé Fadojutimi, set new records in 2023, hinting at evolving tastes and trends. The Post-War art sales experienced a dip to a three-year low, with a 31.6% decrease in 2023. Notable artists like Andy Warhol, Cy Twombly, and Lucien Freud contributed to this decline. Post-War art maintained a significant share of total sales despite this, emphasizing the genre’s enduring appeal.
In the Modern art market, sales decreased by 20.4% in 2023. However, the market received a boost from Single Owner Collections, accounting for 32.4% of total auction sales. Artists such as Pablo Picasso, René Magritte, and Mark Rothko remained influential in this segment. Impressionist art sales witnessed a substantial 53.4% drop in 2023, following the record-setting year of 2022. Despite facing challenges elsewhere, the Old Masters market remained resilient, generating a substantial $363.4 million in sales, marking only a marginal 5.3% decline from 2022.
Despite challenges faced geographically and within each genre, the year 2023 marked a continuation of the positive sales trend for women artists. Auction sales by women artists reached $780.4 million, representing an 8.1% increase from 2022 and a substantial 39.1% surge compared to 2021. Women artists accounted for 13.6% of total sales in 2023, reflecting a growing recognition of their contributions to the art world. Unsurprisingly given their significant auction records, woman artists such as Yayoi Kusama, Joan Mitchell, and Georgia O’Keeffe emerged as top performers amongst both their male and female counterparts. This trend should serve as yet another testament to the resilient and thriving presence of women artists in the global art market.
Another notable highlight in 2023 was the cooling of Asian demand for younger artists, particularly in Hong Kong, where auction sales for this generation dropped from $108.1 million in 2022 to $78.2 million in 2023. This shift suggests a potential recalibration of preferences among Asian buyers in the Contemporary art scene.
As the art world steps into 2024, these highlights from 2023 paint a nuanced picture of an industry navigating considerable international challenges while also showcasing resilience, adaptability, and attractive pockets of growth. The convergence of technological advancements and a more inclusive approach to art creation and consumption will play a critical role in shaping the trajectory of the art market in the coming year.
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Detail of Alice Baber, Wind Divided Mist the Darker (1972)
Sold for $550,000 at Sotheby’s Contemporary Curated sale in September 2023
The third quarter of the auction sales calendar typically accounts for only 4-5% of the total annual sales value. However, after a more challenging first half this year (auction sales by Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips were down 18.2%), we have taken a closer look at Q3 to see if there were any interesting emerging trends and what they might tell us about the season ahead.
Confidence returning as auction sales rise 8% in Q3 2023: Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips generated $642 million in total auction sales (incl. buyer’s premium) in Q3 this year, up 8% from $595 million in Q3 in 2022. This is the highest Q3 sales figure since 2020, when the majority of Q2 sales were moved into Q3. The number of lots also saw a 9% year-on-year increase in sales in the last quarter. The downward slide in Q1 and Q2 seems to have halted, and a majority of collecting segments are either up or have consolidated around last year’s level. Two notable exceptions were Watches and Jewellery (a 30% fall in auction sales Q3) and Design and Decorative Arts & Furniture (down 47%).
Old Masters market drove sales growth: After robust auction sales growth in 2022 (+14%), the Old Masters market continued to grow in Q3, with sales ending up at $140m, more than double that of Q3 in 2022 ($64 million). If the trend continues, the Old Masters market is on track to exceed last year’s sales result. Notable top lots from this season were the unpublished and previously unknown painting by Michael Sweerts, The Artist’s Studio with a Seamstress, which achieved a hammer price of £10.7 million surpassing the pre-sale estimate of £2 million to £3 million, as well as the guaranteed painting Pentecost by the Master of the Baroncelli Portraits, which sold for £7 million.
Post-war and Contemporary sales unchanged from 2022: The overall sales of Post-War and Contemporary art came in at $142 million in Q3 2023, the same level as in 2022. However, we have seen a 11% decline in sales at the lower end of the contemporary market based on Phillips New Now, Sotheby’s Contemporary Curated and Christie’s First Open sales. This could signal that buyers are gravitating towards blue-chip artists in the higher price segments.
Growth across all the three auction houses: Sotheby’s gained the largest market share in Q3 2023, with $331 million in auction sales (+13% from Q3 2022), followed by Christie’s with 46% market share and $277 million in sales (+1.3% from Q3 2022). Phillips accounted for 5% of total sales, and registered a 19% increase from the same period last year.
London sales bounces back: Auction sales in London jumped 40% in Q3 2023 compared to the same period last year. Total sales ended up $294 million, up from $210 million in 2022. The results were driven by strong Old Masters sales in July and Sotheby’s Freddie Mercury: A World of His Own auctions in September that generated $39 million (well above its high estimate of $11.3 million). The renewed energy in the London market bodes well for the upcoming October auctions during Frieze week.
Christie’s 10th anniversary auction in Shanghai: Between 23 -28th September, Christie’s celebrated its 10thyear in Shanghai with four auction sales (3 evening sales and 1 online sale) that raised $181 million (incl. buyer’s premium), and came in at the higher end of the estimate range. The results are a sign that demand among Chinese mainland buyers remains robust and could signal that confidence is returning ahead of Hong Kong season starting this week. Hong Kong auction sales saw a 12% year-on-year decline in first half of this year.
Top 10 Auction Sales in Q3 2023
Sale
Auction House
Date
Premium Total
Old Masters Part I
Christie’s London
6 July 2023
$68,604,053
Old Master & 19th Century Paintings Evening Auction
Sotheby’s London
5 July 2023
$49,598,600
Post-War to Present
Christie’s New York
29 September 2023
$28,244,412
Contemporary Curated
Sotheby’s New York
28 September 2023
$25,060,769
10th Shanghai Auction Anniversary: 20th/21st Century Art Evening Sale
Christie’s Shanghai
23 September 2023
$17,049,305
Freddie Mercury: A World of His Own | The Evening Sale
