Insights from Key Art Market Experts & Our 2024 Global Art Market Outlook Survey

 

As part of our investigation for the 2024 Global Art Market Outlook Report, launched earlier this month, we reached out to three highly regarded authorities in the art market; Melanie Gerlis, the Art Market Editor-at-large for The Art Newspaper and weekly art market columnist for the Financial Times, Robert Read, Head of Art and Private Clients at Hiscox, and Linda Selvin, Executive Director of the Appraisers Association of America – to hear their takeaways from 2023 and insights on what to expect for 2024.

 

2023 Takeaways

 

ArtTactic’s 2024 outlook survey calls attention to the fact that major global auction houses, including Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips, had a significant combined year-on-year decline in sales (17.5%) in 2023, the downturn likely attributed to the impact of external economic and geopolitical pressures that have been mounting throughout 2022 and 2023.

 

“Buyers and sellers are gradually letting go of the notion that art always goes up in price. There’s been a lot of talk of buyers being more “discerning” in recent years, but in 2023, this seemed too much of a euphemism. Buyers are sitting on their hands and so sellers are waiting.” Melanie Gerlis

 

All our surveyed experts highlighted a shift in both buyer and seller behaviours as their main takeaway from last year. Linda Selvin further noted the clear impact of interest rates, geopolitical unrest, and the post-pandemic recovery on market corrections, while Robert Read expressed surprise (especially in the first half of 2023) at the market’s resilience amidst these global challenges.

 

Despite the macroeconomic forces at play, ArtTactic found that the auction market remained active throughout 2023, with the total number of auctions held up 3.0% and the total number of lots sold up 5.6% from 2022. As experts indicate, the buyer and seller attention seems to have shifted away from the top-end of the market in favour of lower-ticket, high-volume collecting segments, such as prints, limited editions, jewellery, and watches.

 

2024 Outlook

 

Our 2024 survey further mentioned that 68% of experts expect a soft landing for the art market this year (up from 47% in 2023), foreseeing sales to hover around last year’s levels. Meanwhile, 12% believe the downward trend may continue (down from 16% in 2022), and 20% think the market could rebound from last year’s decline (down from 37% in 2023).Experts are also divided about their outlook for the low-end market, with 38% agreeing with positive market development in 2024 and 41% saying they anticipate interest in the lower-ticket items to decline.

 

“I think there is a collective nervousness about 2024 – market sentiment dipped in the second half of 2023 and it feels as though that sentiment will harden in 2024.  On the bright side, interest rates are expected to fall in 2024 and that may well stimulate both economies and the art market.” Robert Read

 

Gerlis agrees with Read, foreseeing a cautious environment with patient sellers and buyers that could potentially be affected by distractions, such as the upcoming US elections. Selvin anticipates that strong sales by those less affected by global events and suggests a stable market may attract new collectors while further theorizing that recognition and acquisition of artist’s works that may not have previously had institutional or market success will continue throughout 2024.

 

2024 Challenges

 

Experts identify two key factors that could impact their outlook, according to the survey. The majority (79%) highlight geo-political uncertainty—specifically, concerns about wars and the escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—as the primary challenge facing the art market this year. Additionally, 77% of experts cite concerns about high interest rates, the risk of persistent inflation, and sluggish economic growth, noting that these factors could potentially undermine the art market’s recovery efforts.

 

“Collectors and art professionals will be more in line with their own expectations regarding prices, whether it be buying or selling. Having a greater diversity of works [on offer] in the primary and secondary markets will be of paramount importance.” Linda Selvin

 

In light of the ambiguity mentioned above, Gerlis emphasizes the possible allure of concentrating on short-term taste categories, such as fashion and/or celebrity-based items, and advocates for the market’s conscientious effort to address educational gaps in the realms of art and art history. Read further points to additional economic challenges amid a global recession and the geopolitical risk of China’s potential invasion of Taiwan as obstacles reverberating across all markets, the art market being no exception.

2024 Opportunities

Focusing heavily on lower-end market growth driven by the entrance of new buyers, our 2024 survey revealed a 65% increase in new Gen Z buyers, mainly active in collectible market segments such as handbags, watches, and prints. This mass-market entry proves to be an important force behind the upward trend, yet some experts still express concerns that the top-end market softening will trickle down to the lower segments. Gerlis aligns with 38% of experts surveyed who believe there to be positive market development in the coming year, expecting a shift toward a multi-channel market with higher volumes at lower prices.

 

“We are moving into a very multi-channel market of higher volumes at lower prices. So within the realms of fine art, prints and editions, including photography and sculpture, seem great areas to focus on in order to grow a new generation of collecting.” Melanie Gerlis

 

In addition to the spotlight on the ascending lower end of the market, which experienced a 10% surge in 2023, our 2024 survey investigates four other major trends shaping the art landscape: auction guarantees, the Chinese economy, NextGen artists, and Women artists. Anticipated softening in the auction guarantee market this year does not diminish its significance in attracting premium inventory and single-owner collections. While some guarantors may exit due to diminishing returns, auction houses could explore a shift from heavily backed sales, if the appetite exists. On another note, Read highlights the potential dominance of art fairs for dealers and the continued prosperity of private sales for auction houses as we embark on 2024.

 

As Chinese buying continues to decline, bidding activity may shift away from Chinese and other Asian art buyers in 2024, potentially opening up opportunities for new or previously unsuccessful bidders. However, this shift could also contribute to weakened global demand for art, particularly in the $1m+ segment where Chinese and other Asian buyers accounted for 30% of bidding activity in H1 2023.

 

On a positive note, the NextGen artist and female artist markets present promising opportunities in 2024. Adjusting price expectations for younger artists in response to lower demand could lead to a market correction, appealing to a growing demographic of younger art collectors. Selvin further emphasizes aligning collector expectations with market realities and promoting diversity in primary and secondary markets as a key opportunity in 2024. Meanwhile, women artists continue to make strides in narrowing the gender gap in the auction market, emerging as a robust opportunity area. The prevalence of high-profile women artist museum shows in 2023 further underscores the strength of this segment.

 

Reflecting on the valuable perspectives shared by the seasoned experts above in addition to our 2024 Global Outlook survey findings, it becomes evident that experts foresee a cautious market environment shaped by external distractions. However, the opportunities that lie ahead are diverse and the coming year promises to be a nuanced and ever-evolving chapter shaped largely by the interplay of global events, macro-economic forces, and the resilience of the global art community.

 

Learn even more by downloading our 2024 Global Art Market Outlook Report now available online.

 

_________________________________

 

Are you a student or recent graduate eager to contribute your voice to ArtTactic’s Editorial vision? We’d love to hear from you!

Reach out to Brooke Reese (brooke@arttactic.com) for more information.