ArtTactic’s recently published RawFacts Auction Review for the First Half of 2024 and Art Market Confidence Report – July 2024 offer insights into the market’s current trajectory and the outlook for the remainder of the year.
Here are five notable market trends:
Trend #1: WEAKER TOP-END SALES WEIGHS HEAVILY ON RESULTS
Sluggish economic growth and geo-political uncertainty continue to weigh in on the global auction market. Global auction sales by Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips in the first six months of the year came in 27.0% lower than the same period last year. The impact has been mostly felt in the Post-War and Contemporary art market, which has seen $1m+ sales weakening across major auction hubs in New York, London and Hong Kong.
Trend #2: VALUE DOWN, BUT VOLUME REMAINS HIGH
Despite the weakening of the top end of the market, overall auction volumes remain healthy in H1 2024, and shows that despite lower auction sales value, the number of lots sold remain relatively unchanged. Year-on-year, the number of lots sold in the first half only decreased by 2.3%.
Trend #3: ONLINE SALES DRIVES HALF OF AUCTION TRADING ACTIVITY
A key driver behind the robust volume in the first 6 months of the year has been the 14% increase in Online-Only auction sales in the first six months of the year, accounting for almost half of the total lots sold by the three auction houses and 10% of total value, up from 6% in H1 2023. The significant growth in Online-Only auction sales highlights a shift in buyer behaviour and the increasing importance of digital platforms in the auction industry.
Trend #4: PARIS DEFIES THE GLOBAL DECLINE
Auction sales in Paris, saw positive growth in H1 2024, with total sales coming in at $317.1 million, up 12.2% from H1 2023, and taking a 7.5% market share (up from 4.9% in H1 2023). The strong performance was primarily fuelled by the Barbier-Mueller collection of Oceanic and African works of art at Christie’s in March, which contributed $73.1 million to the sales total in H1 2024.
Trend #5: MARKET GLOOM UNLIKELY TO LIFT IN THE AUTUMN
Six months ago, most experts surveyed by ArtTactic anticipated that the art market would stabilise or improve in the latter half of the year. However, that optimism has significantly diminished over the past six months. Now, only 6% of respondents predict an improvement in the market in the next six months, a drop from the 20% who held that belief in January 2024.
The challenges facing the global art market this autumn is likely to persist, and we anticipate the downward pressures on the market to continue. However, this presents new investment opportunities, as the needle moves from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market.
Learn more about ArtTactic’s research reports and initiatives HERE.
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