Contemporary Art Market Confidence Analysis – June 2017

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This month’s ArtTactic Confidence Indicator for Post-War & Contemporary Art has declined by 13.4% from 6 months ago, raising questions about the speed and sustainability of the current art market recovery.

The Confidence Indicator has been affected by an increasing negative outlook for the global economy in the next 6 months, with the Economic Indicator component dropping 32.4% in the last 6 months. Geopolitical factors such as political instability in the UK and US, conflicts in the Middle-East, fear of terrorism, coupled by more uncertainty around China debt problems, have instilled more fear in the current art market.

The heightened perception of risk, can also be seen by the 18% increase in the ArtTactic Risk Barometer, which currently has a reading of 6.6, up from 5.6 (measured on a scale from 1-10, where 10 is very high risk).

Does this mean we are in for an imminent reversal of the market recovery? Probably not, the share of market experts who believe the positive trend will continue for the remaining half of the year, went up from 39% in January this year to 45% this month. However, the decline in art market confidence do suggest that the pace of the recovery could be slowing down.

After a challenging 2016, the art market saw a strong recovery in sales in the first 3 months of the year. ArtTactic’s 1Q 2017 Auction Review signalled that auction sales (all categories) at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips were up 61.8% compared to the first 3 months for 2016. The increase was driven by a surge in sales of Impressionist & Modern, Post-War & Contemporary and Chinese art. However, total auction sales in April and May increased by a more modest 8.6% compared to the same period last year, which could be an early sign that the recovery is losing some of its initial momentum.

Report Content

• Overall Contemporary Art Market Confidence Indicator

• Price Segment Confidence

• Risk & Speculation Barometer

• Established Artists Confidence Ranking

• Emerging Artists Confidence Ranking

• Artist Confidence Maps