Contemporary Cooldown: Market Recalibrates as Speculation Fades

The 3rd edition of Hiscox Artist Top 100 (HAT 100) report reveals a dramatic reset in the contemporary art market. Auction sales for post-2000* artworks have plummeted, investment returns have turned negative, and the era of blockbuster sales appears to be winding down. After years of high speculation and soaring prices, the market is clearly shifting—toward caution, affordability, and resilience at the lower end.

Key Findings:

• Sales Drop Sharply: Total auction value for post-2000 artworks fell 27% year-on-year, from $956M in 2023 to $698M in 2024—a 41% fall from the 2021 peak.

• Returns Go Negative: Average resale returns dipped into the red at -0.3%, a stark reversal from +9% the year prior.

• Big Money Pulls Back: Sales of high-value lots declined by 41%, while lots under $50,000 surged 20%, signaling a pivot toward more accessible collecting.

• Emerging Artists Struggle: Sales by artists under 45 plummeted 49%, as buyers shifted focus to more established names.

• Volume Hits Record High: Despite declining values, the market remains active—volume of lots sold increased 5%, and a record number of artists saw their work auctioned.

About the Report:
This year’s HAT 100 offers a data-rich snapshot of the contemporary art market through the lens of auction activity, spotlighting the artists and trends shaping collector sentiment. Whether you're a collector, advisor, or industry observer, this is essential reading for navigating a rapidly evolving landscape.

*The year 2000 was chosen to coincide with the beginning of the current Hiscox art collection.