Alongside prevailing caution within the art market, the importance of financial guarantees has reached new levels so far in 2025
Spanning nearly a decade of high-value Evening Sales, the latest edition of The Auction Guarantee Analysis – July 2025 focuses on Post-War, Contemporary, and Young Contemporary artists, with a follow-up report on Impressionist and Modern markets due later this year. Based on over 2,350 guaranteed lots totalling $10.01 billion in sales, this report reveals how an art market increasingly shaped by uncertainty continues to lean heavily on guarantees - particularly at the top end.
Although more than 320 artists are represented in the Evening Sale sample, the guarantee market remains highly concentrated: the top 25 artists account for 72% of total guaranteed value. In the first five months of 2025, guaranteed lots made up 72.9% of Evening Sale volume - the highest share since this analysis began in 2016. Yet, as returns have declined from an average of 9.5% in 2024 to 7.2% in H1 2025, the risk-reward balance for guarantors is showing signs of strain.
As the fall season approaches, this edition offers timely insights for collectors, advisors, and institutions navigating a shifting market. Inside, you'll find:
- Year-on-year comparisons between 2016 and H1 2025, including analysis by guarantee type (in-house vs third party), sales location, price segment and by artist generation.
- Top artists by guarantees, top guaranteed prices and performance Key trends guarantee returns analysis
Two further in-depth analysis are linked to this report:
