With ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and changing consumer appetites, the art market in the last 12 months has been challenging and murky, to say the least. As a result, a vigilant attitude permeated, led by a lack of top-end pieces and major single owner collections coming to the market. The silver lining? Several segments of the market and artists that were previously overlooked are now gaining momentum. Below is an overview of what happened in the art market last year and what to look out for in 2025, according to our The Art Market 2024 – A Year in Review report and Global Art Market Outlook 2025 report.
The Art Market 2024 – A Year in Review
The art market in 2024 faced a challenging landscape, marked by a 29% dip in total auction sales for Old Masters, Impressionist, Modern, Post-War, and Contemporary Art at Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips compared to the previous year. While all major categories faced declines, the sub-$1 million price segment fared better, dropping only 12.5%. Christie’s offered a glimpse of hope, reporting a smaller year-on-year decline of 18.9% and a promising 11.5% recovery in the second half, which could hint a gradual return of both sellers’ and buyers’ confidence.
Amid the downturn, bright spots emerged. Women Surrealist artists saw a remarkable surge, with auction sales increasing 167% thanks to continued interest in Leonora Carrington, Remedios Varo, and Leonor Fini. Meanwhile, demand for Young Contemporary artists (under 45 years old) remained strong, with their presence in the market growing to the third-highest level since 2015.
Geographically, New York retained its dominance with a 62% market share despite a 31% decline in sales. London’s market share rose to 21%, while other cities like Paris and Milan struggled. Although 2024 was turbulent, these pockets of growth and resilience hint at an evolving market adapting to shifting dynamics.
Global Art Market Outlook 2025
As the art market steps into 2025, signs of stabilisation are beginning to emerge after two distressing years. Experts surveyed attribute the renewed optimism to the market’s return to pre-pandemic norms and expectations of recovery, particularly in the U.S. Despite ongoing global uncertainties, confidence in long-term investment potential is gradually strengthening, signalling a shift away from the volatility of the past two years.
Our analysis of the average annual return on art (CAGR) shows that short-term speculation is no longer paying off in today’s softer market conditions. This reinforces the importance of longer holding periods to achieve higher probabilities of positive returns. Meanwhile, the lower-end market (below $50k) holds promise for attracting new buyers, yet economic and geopolitical uncertainties could temper enthusiasm, particularly as returns on art investment have dipped over the past two years.
Furthermore, generational shifts in the market reveal mixed signals. Sales by younger artists fell 50% in 2024, but robust lot volumes suggest continued buyer interest, albeit at lower price points. Women artists also faced declining sales, but volumes remain close to historic highs. The spotlight on Surrealist women artists, spurred by recent successes, could inspire further exploration of overlooked talents. As 2025 unfolds, the art market appears poised for a cautious but meaningful recalibration.
For a comprehensive understanding of the art market’s current state and future trajectory, our latest Global Art Market Outlook 2025 report offers in-depth analyses on regional art markets. It includes reviews of the 2024’s auction performance, and insights into shifting market positions against broader economic trends in 2025. Equip yourself with the knowledge to navigate this evolving landscape with confidence. Download your copy now to stay informed.
